Choices and burnout

Here's the deal. I'm getting to that point in marathon training where I'm feeling pretty confident and wishing the race were this weekend and not 3 weeks hence. I have been at this point for each of the previous marathons I've run, and I didn't run either of them as well as I'd wanted to. So I'm hoping I'm not experiencing the same kind of thing. This week it's been difficult for me to want to get any miles in, and consequently I didn't run at all on Monday. I did do 5 yesterday and 6 today, so I'm not too far behind, especially if I double up on Wednesday or Thursday.

As I mentioned, there's 3 weeks until the marathon from this Saturday. I can either make this week my last long week, and then do a 3-week taper before the big dance, or I can take it easy-ish this week and go long again next week, and follow it up with a 2-week taper. Or... I could go long-ish this week and long-ish next week, and then go with a 2-week taper. I'm leaning towards the first option or the last option -- three-week tapers just seem too long for me, since my max weekly mileage is still under 45, and doesn't look like it's going to exceed that point unless I build this week and next week -- which I think I'd like to do. Overdoing it? Maybe...

I tend to be more motivated by the possibility of overdoing it than by trying to maintain or take it more "sensibly" from now until race day.

So... am I more likely to burn out if I keep going long until a 2-week taper? Or would it be smarter and possibly less-motivating to play it safe and take an easy week this week -- or even go long this week and do a 3-week taper? Decisions, decisions....